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Fresh FM Nigeria| Keeping you fresh all day > Blog > Business > Rebased GDP Reveals Fragile Economy, MAN Warns FG
Business

Rebased GDP Reveals Fragile Economy, MAN Warns FG

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Last updated: July 29, 2025 1:09 PM
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The Manufacturers Association of Nigeria has called on the Federal Government to prioritise manufacturing and industrialisation to ensure the gains from the country’s improved rebased Gross Domestic Product reflect the true state of the economy.

The Director General, MAN, Mr Segun Ajayi-Kadri, made the call on Tuesday in Lagos, while reacting to Nigeria’s GDP growth of 3.13 per cent in the first quarter of 2025.

According to Ajayi-Kadri, the modest improvement from 2.27 per cent in the same period of 2024, indicates that the economy is capable of recovery.

He explained that the rebased GDP, a revised estimate of the nominal Gross Domestic Product, was largely the result of improved data capture, particularly in agriculture, services, and informal sector activities.

Ajayi-Kadri, however, warned against interpreting the nominal expansion of the rebased GDP as a sign of significant economic advancement.

He stated that in spite of the upward revision, real GDP growth remained weak, averaging just 1.95 per cent between 2020 and 2024.

He said that this highlights the underlying fragility of Nigeria’s productive base and the capacity of the economy to achieve sustainable and inclusive development.

“Industry’s share of GDP fell from 27.65 per cent in the 2010 base year to 21.08 per cent under the 2019 rebased structure, marking a structural shift away from production toward low-productivity service activities.

“The rebasing confirms that Nigeria’s economy may be statistically larger, but it is not more productive, nor more industrialised.

“While the rebasing exercise reveals a more diversified economy, it also exposes the underperformance of industry, particularly manufacturing, a sector which should be the backbone of Nigeria’s economic transformation,” he said.

Ajayi-Kadri urged the government to view the rebased GDP not as a celebration of growth, but as a compelling call for structural industrial reforms.

He emphasized the need for Nigeria to pursue re-industrialisation in order to foster inclusive growth, enhance export capacity, and reduce reliance on primary commodities and informal sector activities.

He called on the government to place manufacturing at the forefront of policymaking, financing, and infrastructure development.

According to him, without a solid industrial foundation, GDP expansion may just become a hollow statistic.

“The upward revision of Nigeria’s GDP to $243 billion could offer a lift in investors’ confidence and improve headline macroeconomic ratios such as the debt-to-GDP ratio.

“However, confidence in the economy is anchored not just on size, but on structural resilience, depth of industrial capacity and productivity growth.

“In this regard, we need to refocus on the development of the real and high-impact driven sector,” he said.
Ajayi-Kadri called for sustained industry-centric policies, already exemplified by the Industrial Revolution Working Group, infrastructure investments, and improved access to long-term finance to revitalise the industrial sector.

This, he said, was the way for the growth in GDP to alleviate poverty, create jobs, and contribute to macroeconomic stability.

The MAN DG strongly advocated a manufacturing-led growth strategy.

“This must include sector-specific interventions such as energy reliability for manufacturers, incentivised local content policies, streamlined regulatory frameworks, and strategic trade facilitation to boost competitiveness,” he said.

He added that the government should implement targeted industrial policy interventions aimed at revitalizing struggling sub-sectors such as textiles and vehicle assembly.

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TAGGED:Manufacturers Association of NigeriaMr Segun Ajayi-Kadri

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