Nigeria’s foreign trade has strengthened under President Bola Tinubu, with exports rising, total trade expanding and trade surpluses recorded every quarter since mid 2023.
According to the National Bureau of Statistics, by the third quarter of 2025, Nigeria’s total trade hit ₦38.93 trillion, while the trade surplus widened to ₦6.69 trillion, marking one of the country’s strongest positions in recent years.
Economists say the performance is partly linked to naira volatility on imports. Historically, when the naira is devalued or weakens, imports tend to fall almost immediately, although export responses depend on policy and other economic factors. In the short term, currency movements have a strong effect on Nigeria’s import levels.
A review of the figures shows a sharp rise in trade since the start of the Tinubu administration. In Q2 2023, total trade stood at ₦12.74 trillion, with exports of ₦6.44 trillion and imports of ₦6.30 trillion. This left a small surplus of ₦0.13 trillion.
By Q3 2023, exports rose to ₦10.35 trillion while imports stood at ₦9.04 trillion, pushing the surplus to ₦1.32 trillion. Trade growth became even stronger in 2024. In Q1 2024, exports surged to ₦19.18 trillion, imports rose to ₦14.75 trillion, and the surplus expanded sharply to ₦4.43 trillion.
In Q2 2024, exports increased further to ₦17.71 trillion while imports dipped slightly to ₦13.96 trillion, producing a surplus of ₦3.75 trillion. By Q3 2024, exports climbed to ₦20.54 trillion, imports were ₦15.28 trillion, and the surplus reached ₦5.23 trillion, the highest that year.
The momentum continued into 2025. In Q1 2025, exports expanded to ₦20.60 trillion, imports were ₦15.43 trillion and the surplus stood at ₦5.17 trillion. In Q2 2025, exports jumped to ₦22.75 trillion against imports of ₦15.29 trillion, pushing the surplus to a record ₦7.46 trillion.
By Q3 2025, exports edged up to ₦22.81 trillion while imports rose to ₦16.12 trillion. Total trade climbed to ₦38.93 trillion, with a strong surplus of ₦6.69 trillion.
Analysts note that the weaker naira has likely boosted non oil exports while reducing imports, at least in the short term. Oil exporters also benefit when currency depreciation aligns with higher global oil prices.
Commenting on the data, Director General of the Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, Dr Muda Yusuf, said the consistent trade surpluses reflect policy changes and broader economic adjustments, rather than a major shift in the country’s export structure.
“The data show a strong rise in trade values, largely driven by exchange rate liberalization and higher oil export earnings in the near term,” Yusuf said.
He added that while the surplus is positive news, much of the export growth remains oil dependent and Nigeria continues to rely heavily on imports. Rising imports in 2024 and 2025 also suggest a recovery in domestic demand.
“The key challenge is turning these big trade numbers into real economic gains by diversifying exports, strengthening manufacturing, improving logistics and reducing import dependence,” Yusuf said.
Overall, analysts describe the data as encouraging yet mixed. While Nigeria is earning more from trade and maintaining surpluses, but sustaining these gains will require deeper reforms as the Tinubu administration enters into the second half of its term.
