Nigeria’s arms and ammunition imports increased by 104.31 percent in the first half of 2026, reaching N55.06bn from N26.95bn noted in the same period of 2025, amid growing worries about the spread of weapons before next year’s general elections.
Recent information on foreign trade obtained from the National Bureau of Statistics for the second quarter of 2026 indicated that the nation imported over N55bn in arms within a six-month period.
It was stated that the influx of weapons occurred shortly before the Independent National Electoral Commission holds the 2027 general elections. INEC has set the dates for the Presidential and National Assembly elections on January 16, 2027, while the Governorship and State Houses of Assembly polls are plannedfor February 6, 2027.
Significantly, the increase in arms imports comes after a previous report, which revealed that the Nigeria Customs Service seized approximately 603 firearms trying to enter the nation from January to August 2026. The weapons that were seized have allegedly been transferred to the National Centre for the Control of Small Arms and Light Weapons.
Security analysts and civil society organizations have consistently connected the accessibility of firearms to the trustworthiness and security of elections in Nigeria. A recent evaluation by the CLEEN Foundation of security practices during the 2026 Osun State gubernatorial election highlights the stakes leading up to 2027.
The Foundation, which sent trained observers to oversee the behavior of security personnel at the end of polling in Osun, discovered that a security presence was maintained in the “large majority” of polling units observed, with all assessments indicating that the number of officers present was sufficient.
Nevertheless, reports indicated that officers abandoned their duty stations for a duration in six percent of instances, while two percent of polling locations were completely unmonitored by security staff.
The Foundation emphasized that maintaining a consistent security presence until polls close is essential, highlighting that “opportunistic interference is most likely” in the final voting hours and immediately after, when lines are clearedand ballot boxes get ready for transport.
The report also revealed that officers were observed clearly carrying firearms in 37 percent of the monitored locations, a figure described as generally in line with standard deployment procedures.
Security officials were reported to have applied force in two percent of sites, while threat occurrences were noted in twelve percent of observed polling locations.
Evaluating the security of ballot boxes post-voting, an essential part of Nigeria’s electoral chain of custody, the Foundation reported that officials ensured security for the transport of ballot boxes in 86 percent of the polling units it observed. In contrast, the other 14 percent could not be verified independently.
The Foundation’s independent examination of media accounts from election day pinpointed six sites with reported violence, such as gunfire near a traditional leader’s palace and disruption by thugs at a polling station, though it emphasized that many of these reports came from unverified party claims instead of confirmed events.
In its recommendations, the CLEEN Foundation advised security agencies to “maintain, instead of diminishing, officer presence and vigilance” during the collection and transmission of election results, cautioning that threats to voters, party agents, and observers have historically increased after voting concludes.
The Foundation urged the Federal Government to expedite the passage of laws that create a specific judicial framework for prosecuting electoral offenders, citing the existing enforcement gap as contributing to a “climate of impunity” that undermines deterrence against electoral misconduct.
