The first three years of President Bola Tinubu’s administration, according to the Center for the Promotion of Private Enterprise, were primarily devoted to reestablishing macroeconomic stability after taking over major fiscal, monetary, and foreign exchange challenges. However, the reforms’ advantages have not yet been translated into widespread welfare gains.
Dr. Muda Yusuf, the Chief Executive Officer of the CPPE, evaluated the administration’s economic performance and stated that the government took office in the face of severe foreign exchange illiquidity, numerous exchange rates, dwindling investor confidence, and depleted external reserves.
He claimed that entrenched Ways and Means financing and a fuel subsidy system that had grown to be a significant source of fiscal leakages and economic distortions were also contributing factors to the stressed fiscal conditions.
According to Yusuf, the two main policies supporting the administration’s economic stabilization program are the elimination of fuel subsidies and currency rate unification.
He claimed that while exchange rate unification enhanced price discovery in the foreign exchange market and decreased arbitrage opportunities, the removal of subsidies eased strain on public finances and laid the groundwork for a more sustainable downstream petroleum sector.
He did point out that there were substantial adjustment costs associated with both policies. “A major inflationary shock was the immediate result of the policies. The loss of the naira intensified the pressure on imported inflation, energy prices skyrocketed, transportation and logistics costs climbed, and production expenditures drastically increased,” according to Yusuf.
He claimed that a cost-of-living crisis, increasing poverty circumstances, and declining real incomes were all caused by the measures. Yusuf stated that there was proof of a macroeconomic rebound despite the difficulties.
He stated that since 2025, exchange rate volatility had decreased, investor confidence had grown, the balance of trade remained in surplus, gross reserves were getting close to $50 billion, and foreign reserves had greatly improved.
Before inflationary pressures reappeared after the Iran-US-Israel confrontation in March 2026, the economy experienced 11 consecutive months of disinflation from early 2025 to February 2026, according to the CPPE chief.
The Nigerian Exchange All-Share Index surged from roughly 55,700 points in 2023 to more than 254,000 points in 2026, and market capitalization expanded from over N30 trillion to over N160 trillion, he added, pointing to gains in the capital market.
According to Yusuf, the development of local refining capacity, spearheaded by the Dangote Refinery, has boosted energy security and foreign exchange conservation, while the termination of Ways and Means financing has improved monetary discipline and macroeconomic stability.
According to him, “an economy that produces more of what it consumes is inherently more resilient than one that depends excessively on imports.”
Despite the improvements, Yusuf noted a number of unaddressed issues, including as high inflation, low purchasing power, and shaky consumer confidence.
“The challenge facing the administration is no longer just one of economic stabilization; it is imperative to convert reform gains into jobs, higher incomes, lower poverty, and a better quality of life for Nigerians,” he stated.
Citing its effects on agriculture, food production, rural lives, and investment, he also recognized insecurity as a significant impediment to economic recovery. “When farmers continue to face threats to their lives and livelihoods, no economy can achieve food security,” Yusuf said.
The head of CPPE went on to point out that factors impeding industrial competitiveness and job development include high energy costs, logistical bottlenecks, inconsistent regulation, inadequate infrastructure, and high lending rates.
Regarding fiscal sustainability, Yusuf pointed out that the depreciation of the naira and the securitization of N23 trillion in residual Ways and Means liabilities contributed to the public debt’s increase to N159.3 trillion as of December 2025.
He claims that while continuing tax reforms could increase government revenue and boost fiscal capacity, debt sustainability and fiscal space continue to be significant policy challenges. Additionally, Yusuf emphasized the significance of accountability, transparency, and governance in maintaining public support for economic reforms.
The idea of shared sacrifice is essential to the long-term viability of economic changes. When people believe that the political and governing elite, in addition to households and businesses, bear the expenses of adjustment, public confidence is bolstered, he added.
According to Yusuf, the next stage of reforms should concentrate on transforming macroeconomic stability into inclusive growth through increased investment, productivity, food security, energy security, industrial competitiveness, and poverty alleviation.
In the end, reserve accumulation, currency rate stability, and stock market performance won’t be the only indicators of the reform agenda’s success. It would be evaluated based on how it affects employment, earnings, living standards, and the level of living of common Nigerians, he stated.
